Inflation Steady, Fed in Focus: Where the Opportunities Are Today

Markets are opening higher after core PCE data meets expectations. Here's where smart money may be positioning and what risks to monitor.

Sep 26, 2025

Market Outlook – Friday, September 26, 2025

Markets are poised to open higher this morning following a broadly anticipated inflation report that showed no major surprises. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure — the Core PCE Price Index — came in at 2.9% year-over-year, unchanged from July.

Headline PCE rose to 2.7%, slightly higher than last month but still in line with consensus. Consumer spending and incomes also beat forecasts, signaling continued demand resilience.

As of pre-market, futures across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are up ~0.4% to 0.5%, while the VIX is down over 1%, suggesting improving sentiment.

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Opportunities to Watch

Tech & Growth Stocks:
With inflation steady and rate cuts still on the table, rate-sensitive sectors like technology and growth stocks could benefit from renewed interest. Look for momentum in large-cap AI names or beaten-down software stocks.

Consumer Discretionary:
Stronger-than-expected consumer spending (+0.6%) suggests continued demand despite macro concerns. Retailers and discretionary brands with pricing power may see upside. TikTok Did $33B in Sales-This Brand Wants In

Gold & Precious Metals:
Gold is ticking higher pre-market. If inflation expectations rise slightly or political tension around the Fed intensifies, gold could catch a bid as a hedge. Fed Signals More Rate Cuts—Big Opportunity for Gold?

Small Caps:
Russell 2000 futures are green. Smaller companies typically benefit from falling rates and resilient domestic demand. Watch for oversold names in financials or industrials.

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Risks and What to Watch

Tariff Impact Lag: Trump’s new tariffs haven’t yet meaningfully hit prices, but delayed pass-through effects could reignite inflation later this year.
Political Pressure on the Fed: Ongoing conflict between the White House and the Fed could spook markets if it escalates into legal or institutional uncertainty.
Rate Cut Expectations: Markets are pricing a cut in October. Any shift in Fed tone could change that quickly.

Bottom Line

With inflation stable and the Fed cautiously dovish, the setup favors selective risk-taking — especially in sectors tied to growth, consumer resilience, and alternative stores of value. But stay alert to macro shifts and policy pressure. Watch how markets digest today’s data and whether follow-through comes from institutional flows.